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  • Top DraftKings CFB Plays: "Week Zero" | Kicking Off the College Football Season! 🏈

Top DraftKings CFB Plays: "Week Zero" | Kicking Off the College Football Season! 🏈

Author

Ryan Humphries
August 25, 2023

By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Friday marks the official day of “College Football Eve” with live CFB action kicking off tomorrow! This is what is referred to as “Week Zero” on the college football schedule. We’ll have to wait another week for some actual marquee match-ups to roll around but the main point is, come Saturday, we have some live, meaningful college football being played!

The focus of these “Weekly Pigskin” CFB newsletters will be geared toward the Saturday main slate on DraftKings, which will typically begin at noon ET. Unlike most other sports, game selection on college football slates vary considerably between DraftKings and FanDuel from week to week, so it simply isn’t optimal to attempt to focus on both sites in one newsletter when many games are only going to apply to one DFS site’s slate and not the other. With that being said, if you’re playing CFB DFS primarily on FanDuel, feel free to keep some of the highlighted players and information in mind since there is still plenty of overlap between the DK and FD main slate game selection.

College Football DFS Tips & Strategy 💡

Let’s give a quick rundown on some general strategy and nuances when it comes to CFB DFS compared to NFL DFS.

If you’re a seasoned CFB DFS vet, feel free to skip these next few paragraphs.

There is a huge edge to be had in college football DFS if you do the research and stay on top of things leading up to a slate kicking off. Very few DFS services offer projections or cover college football, at least not as extensively as LineStar, so you’re in the right place if you’re looking for a profitable CFB DFS season. The lack of CFB support in the DFS industry is largely due to a shortage of resources and reliable information which professional sports like the NFL, NBA, and MLB possess in droves. There are also a TON of players to go through each week, injury news can be extremely vague or simply non-existent, depth charts are constantly changing week to week, and there may be some weeks where a certain team appears on a specific slate and then you’ll never see them show up again for the rest of the season. College football injury news and player availability are oftentimes made public at the very last minute. Fortunately, plenty of key info is shared in the LineStar chat, so try to hang around for the latest news and rumors as we get closer to each slate kicking off! And don’t hesitate to share any sliver of news you come across as well. Sometimes it takes a community effort to gain an informed edge against the field!

From a strategy standpoint, many approaches you would take in NFL lineup builds are identical to what you should be doing in college football builds -- things like QB + pass catcher stacking, finding high-volume offensive players facing poor defenses, predicting game scripts, targeting players on both sides of a match-up that has a high total and close spread, etc. The 2023 LineStar NFL Strategy Guide will be released within the next week but feel free to post any inquiries in the chat if you have questions about general football DFS strategies and insights.

A unique aspect of traditional CFB lineup construction is the inclusion of an “S-FLEX” roster position, aka a “Super Flex.” For the uninitiated, that means you can place any skill position player in that roster slot, including quarterbacks. Since quarterbacks have the highest fantasy floors and excellent ceilings, rolling out two QBs, one being your Super Flex, is one of the best strategies to implement in nearly any given week, especially in cash games. On average, college point totals are drastically higher than NFL totals, and quarterbacks really do reign supreme at this level of football. Many more QBs can also add value running the ball at the college level compared to the NFL. Securing two quarterbacks with high floors/high ceilings can often be the optimal route in both cash & GPP lineup builds. Another thing you may notice is the lack of dedicated tight end and D/ST roster spots. DraftKings essentially just groups both receiving positions together so all players who are technically TEs will be labeled as WRs. As for defense and special teams, I believe most of us can agree that being forced to play a D/ST in CFB lineups would just end up being an annoyance!

Fire away with any questions you may have about CFB DFS, and either myself or one of our other knowledgeable staff or members will be happy to help!

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Things will really begin to heat up next week but, for now, we’ll get our feet wet with this five-game DraftKings main slate to open up the CFB season! The slate will begin at 7:00 ET on Saturday, but keep in mind that most Saturday main slates will feature around 11-to-14 games and kick off at noon ET. And, once again, while these newsletters are geared toward the DraftKings main slate, most of the information and recommended DFS plays will be useful for FanDuel players as well, though, there will often be some significant salary discrepancies. The FD main slate will include all five of the DK main slate games as well, however, it will also tack on the Navy/Notre Dame and UTEP/JVST games and begin at 2:30 ET.

This newsletter from this point onward will be a bit abbreviated compared to future CFB newsletters. It’s not the best of slates to begin with and there is always a vast amount of guesswork to be done at the start of each college football season. Unless you’re really feeling it, I’d recommend playing this slate fairly light and instead use this as an opportunity to get reacquainted or familiar with the groove of CFB DFS!

Alright, enough of my blabbering. Let’s get into some favorable week zero plays!

 

Main Slate Match-Ups

Main slate implied team totals (high to low):

Quarterbacks to Consider

QB options at various price points.

Caleb Williams, USC | DK: $9,900 | vs. SJSU

Rolling with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner seems like a solid DFS strategy. More groundbreaking news at 11. Seriously though, there probably isn’t much need to convince anyone to play Caleb Williams in DFS this week. But I’ll run through the important bits anyhow. Williams is coming off of a spectacular 2022 campaign that resulted in 324.1 passing YPG with a 42:5 TD:INT ratio. He also racked up 10 rushing TDs and 27.3 rushing YPG. The only concern would be the blowout factor as USC steps in as massive -30.5 point favorites to open the season. However, we can look back to USC’s opener last season, where they bulldozed Rice by a score of 66-14. Williams still posted a rock-solid 24.76 DKFP score despite his team winning by 52 points. San Jose State had a decent scoring and passing defense a season ago but there is little they’ll be able to do against a vastly superior USC team that leads the slate, by a wide margin, with a 48.5 implied point total. Point blank, Caleb Williams is the safest play on the slate.

Diego Pavia, NMST | DK: $7,400 | vs. UMASS

Pavia was not the full-time starter for NMST a season ago but he enters the 2023 season atop the depth chart after staving off other QB hopefuls. Pavia displayed a huge ceiling at times last season and he’s a guy who can add value with his rushing ability. An example of his ceiling would be his 2022 week 13 start against Liberty where he completed 16/21 passes for 214 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 125 yards on 20 attempts and notching an additional three touchdowns on the ground -- a performance that was good for 54.06 DKFP. NMST scored 49 points that game so expectations should not be as high in this opening match-up where they own a 25.8 implied total. That said, they are -6.5 point home favorites and are taking on a UMASS team that stumbled to a 1-11 record a season ago.

 

Hank Bachmeier, LT | $5,800 | vs. FIU

Bachmeier transferred over to La Tech from Boise State this off-season and the senior QB will bring plenty of experience to his new offense. His college numbers aren’t astounding, with a 61.6% comp%, 41:19 TD:INT ratio, and 7.6 YPA, but they’re solid overall and La Tech is being pinned with a strong 35.0 point implied total. FIU had one of the worst scoring defenses in the FBS last season, allowing 37.2 PPG (ranked 126th out of 130 teams) and they were 108th in pass defense. Bachmeier isn’t the type of QB who can add a ton of value with his legs, but 250-300 yards and three or four touchdowns is an attainable outcome from him in this game. He’ll make for a worthy QB2 (S-FLEX) option on this slate.

Wide Receivers to Consider

WR options at various price points.

Dorian Singer, USC | $7,700 | vs. SJSU

Singer joins a talented USC WR corps as a transfer from Arizona where he posted an impressive 1,105-yard season in 2022, which placed him 14th in the country in receiving yards among FBS receivers. Similar to USC, Arizona was a prolific passing offense last year with both teams ranking 3rd and 4th in passing YPG, respectively. Singer will now benefit from a major QB upgrade with Caleb Williams throwing him the ball in an offense that can score at will. As mentioned, the USC WR room is talented and deep so it’s tough to project how the target distribution will work out but there is no question that there is immense upside to be had with Singer and he makes for a premiere stack option with Caleb Williams.

Smoke Harris, LT | $6,600 | vs. FIU

La Tech’s leading receiver from last season, Tre Harris, transferred out to Ole Miss, leaving Smoke Harris as the clear top option in the passing game in 2023. Harris averaged 8.2 targets/gm in 2022 and displayed a strong floor and high ceiling for much of the season. Harris’ fantasy prospects should improve further with improved QB play from Hank Bachmeier. As mentioned in Bachmeier’s write-up, FIU returns one of the worst defenses in the FBS so there should be plenty of room for a big day out of the La Tech passing game.

Transfer WR Tru Edwards ($3,000) is also listed as a starter for La Tech beside Harris and Cyrus Allen ($5,700). At the stone minimum, Edwards makes for an intriguing punt play.

 

Will Sheppard, VAN | $5,000 | vs. HAW

Sheppard stands out as one of the more underpriced players on the slate so, even with high ownership, we’ll want to take advantage of this bargain pricing. Sheppard returns as the leading Vandy receiver where he garnered 116 targets and 9.7 targets/gm in 2022, resulting in 776 yards (64.7 YPG) and nine touchdowns. Vanderbilt is the most outmatched team in the SEC year in and year out which makes Sheppard’s numbers from last season even more impressive. Vandy also opened up with Hawaii last season and went on to win big by a score of 63-10 in a game where Sheppard caught two touchdown passes. They’ll rank second on the slate with a 36.5-point implied total so moving the ball on offense should not be an issue for them this week. Expect Sheppard to be heavily involved in the game plan.

Pofele Ashlock, HAW | $3,000 | @ VAN

There is a ton of guesswork to be done when hunting for WR (and RB) CFB DFS value this early in the season. Ashlock, a redshirt freshman, is listed atop the depth chart for Hawaii and represents a low-risk investment at the minimum $3,000 salary. Hawaii is a major +17.5 point underdog so the game script should lean pass-heavy. Hawaii was the 21st most pass-happy team in the FBS last season and we won’t need a huge day out of Ashlock to cash in on value.

Running Backs to Consider

RB options at various price points.

MarShawn Lloyd, USC | $7,400 | vs. SJSU

We’ve led off the QB and WR sections with the Trojans, so why not cap it off in the RB department? USC’s leading rusher from 2022, Travis Dye, has taken his talents to the NFL which leaves Austin Jones ($7,800) and Lloyd listed as co-starters atop the depth chart. So, like most early-season situations, we’ll be left guessing which guy will ultimately pull away as the lead back. This will be a good chance for USC to let both RBs handle a fair amount of work and if forced to choose between one over the other, I’ll take the $400 savings and roll the dice on Lloyd. Jones averaged a respectable 5.2 YPC last season, leading to 705 yards and five TDs. He also caught 25 passes for 267 yards and an additional score. Lloyd, who transferred over from South Carolina, also averaged 5.2 YPC in 2022 before missing most of the second half of the season due to injury. However, his numbers were impressive even against tougher SEC competition and he punched in nine TDs while essentially playing in just seven games. Lloyd also showed some skill as a pass catcher, averaging 9.8 YPR on 18 receptions with two additional TDs. Both USC RBs are more GPP plays than anything, but there is some definite multi-touchdown potential to be had.

 

Sieh Bangura, OHIO | $7,200 | @ SDSU

Bangura put together an impressive redshirt freshman season last year, totaling 1,078 yards rushing (4.9 YPC) and 13 TDs on the ground with 27 receptions for 226 yards and two TDs through the air. He’ll look to build upon that freshman season as Ohio’s clear-cut workhorse RB and he should have 20-30 touch upside to open the season. This match-up possesses the closest spread on the slate (Ohio +2) so Bangura shouldn’t be scripted out of this game.

Shomari Lawrence, FIU | $6,200 | @ LT

FIU’s returning leading rusher, Lexington Joseph, will miss the entire 2023 season due to a torn ACL sustained in spring practice. Shomari Lawrence, a transfer in from South Dakota, now stands on top of the depth chart and will get the first crack at lead RB duties for the Golden Panthers. Lawrence averaged 5.6 YPC on 107 attempts with South Dakota last season and showed some ability to break long gains as well. Despite FIU stepping in as +11 point underdogs, this does set up as an advantageous match-up for the run game. La Tech finished 129th in the FBS in run defense last season, allowing 243.2 rush YPG and a 6.12 YPC average.

 

Charvis Thornton, LT | $5,400 | vs. FIU

Hopping over to the other side of this match-up, Charvis Thornton is another RB who will look to seize an opportunity with his team’s top RB going down to injury before the season has even begun. RB Marquis Crosby, La Tech’s leading rusher from 2022, will miss the team’s season opener due to injury. That leaves Thornton as the next man up and the leading candidate to handle the bulk of La Tech’s RB touches. Thornton only handled 80 carries behind Crosby last season, but he averaged an impressive 5.8 YPC and punched in three scores. He should be able to find plenty of room against an FIU run defense that ranked 110th in the FBS in 2022, allowing 191.8 YPG on the ground.

 

Tylan Hines, HAW | $4,700 | @ VAN

Hines heads into the 2023 season as Hawaii’s leading returning rusher with RB Dedrick Parson graduating. Behind Parson in 2022, Hines garnered just 83 carries but he made the most of his opportunities, racking up 634 yards on the ground -- good for a stout 7.6 YPC average. The game script may not favor Hines and the Hawaii run game, as the Rainbow Warriors enter as +17.5 road underdogs. At the same time, Vandy also doesn’t project to own a stout run defense after surrendering 5.2 YPC and 170.8 rushing YPG (ranked 95th) a season ago. Hines won’t break the bank and has 15-20 touch upside with a solid chance to find the endzone as well.

That will do it for this week’s CFB DFS rundown! We’ll get a better grasp on things as the season progresses but, for now, let’s all just rejoice in the fact that football is back! Best of luck this week!