By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Another college football Saturday is on the horizon as we look to dive into week nine! As usual, this newsletter will focus on the 12-game DraftKings Saturday main slate which will kick off at noon ET. For FanDuel players, there will be nine mutually shared games with the DraftKings slate, so plenty of info and recommended plays in this newsletter should be helpful to you as well. Let’s jump right into this Saturday’s CFB action! Best of luck!

Here is a look at the 15 teams with a 26.3+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want very little exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to crack 20 points. Unless a specific player is priced down and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these seven teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Quarterbacks to Consider

QB options at various price points.

Caleb Williams, USC | $10,500 | @ CAL

Southern Cal has knocked themselves out of the College Football Playoffs with back-to-back losses to Notre Dame and Utah. Reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams also struggled against those two defenses but he’ll land a much softer match-up in week nine. Cal’s defense has allowed 289.3 pass YPG, 2.5 pass TD/gm, a 70.2% comp%, and 27.7 FPPG to QBs in their last four contests. Williams had one of his patented Heisman-like performances against Cal last season, throwing for 360 yards and four touchdowns while adding 38 yards on the ground with a rushing TD. The Trojans' defense is awful in their own right, which forces Williams and the USC offense to stay aggressive for all four quarters most weeks. We’ve got a fairly narrow (by CFB standards) 10-point spread in this game, with USC being road favorites. It all adds up to Williams bringing some legitimate 40+ DKFP potential to lineups this Saturday.

John Rhys Plumlee, UCF | $7,200 | vs. WVU

Rhys Plumlee has battled with a knee injury that has caused him to miss some games this season, but it is tough to ignore a player at this salary who has as much dual-threat QB upside as JRP possesses. He ran for multiple 100+ yard games last season and brings 300+ yards passing potential to the table as well. This game also sets up as one of the better DFS environments on the slate given its 60+ over/under and close spread (UCF -7). West Virginia is also allowing 34.2 FPPG to QBs in road games this season. JRP is not immune to poor performances, but his ceiling is through the roof so he’s worth some DFS shares this week.

Maalik Murphy, UT | $7,000 | vs. BYU

With QB Quinn Ewers (shoulder) unlikely to play this week, redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy is in line for his first collegiate start on Saturday. Murphy came in as the 9th-ranked pro-style QB in the 2022 recruiting cycle and he’s surrounded by ample talent that should help him succeed against BYU. Even with the Longhorns starting an unproven RS freshman, they step in as -20 point home favorites with a 35.0 implied team total. BYU has surrendered 26.3 FPPG to QBs over their last four games and Murphy will set up as a worthy QB2 pivot away from the (likely) high-owned John Rhys Plumlee.

Other QBs to Consider

Dillon Gabriel, OU | $9,400 | @ KU

Garrett Greene, WVU | $8,100 | @ UCF

Max Johnson, TA&M | $6,500 | vs. SCAR

Fernando Mendoza, CAL | $5,800 | vs. USC

Wide Receivers to Consider

WR options at various price points.

Keon Coleman, FSU | $7,000 | @ WAKE

The range of fantasy point outcomes has been extremely drastic for Coleman. He has scored as low as 0.2 DKFP and as high as 42.2 DKFP with the Florida State Seminoles this season. It’s a strong spot for Coleman to have one of his “boom” games, especially if WR Johnny Wilson (undisclosed/questionable) is unable to suit up. When Wilson sat out in week seven, Coleman caught 9-of-11 targets for 140 yards and a score. Wake Forest has been torched by opposing WRs this season, allowing 196.4 YPG, 15.1 rec/gm, and 1.4 TDs/gm to the position.

Brenden Rice, USC | $6,400 | @ CAL

If we’re predicting that QB Caleb Williams will get back on track this Saturday, then so should WR Brenden Rice, who has caught a touchdown from Williams in all but two games this season and leads the Trojans with eight receiving TDs on the year. Cal is allowing 215.8 YPG and 48.8 FPPG to WRs over their last four games and the Trojans should be slinging it all afternoon in this PAC-12 showdown.

Jamari Thrash, UL | $6,100 | vs. DUKE

This feels like a mighty generous price point for Jamari Thrash, who has scored at least 18.1 DKFP in 6-of-7 games this season, along with 24.0+ DKFP in four games. Thrash is locked into some guaranteed volume with a 26.4% target% while averaging 5.6 rec/gm for 91.3 YPG this season. The Duke secondary has been stingy, allowing just 105.1 YPG and 24.7 FPPG to WRs this season, but we’ll trust Thrash’s consistent target share and keep him firmly on the DFS radar at this $6,100 salary.

Evan Stewart, TA&M | $5,800 | vs. SCAR

Stewart’s fantasy stock took a sizable hit once the Aggies lost QB Connor Weigman (leg) for the season but I can tell you as a South Carolina fan that this Gamecocks secondary could not stop a nosebleed right now. The Gamecocks rank 127th in the FBS in passing YPG allowed (305.0) and they’re giving up 278.0 YPG and 53.7 FPPG to WRs over their last four games. Stewart has still seen some decent targets since QB Max Johnson took over at QB and the Aggies should have no issues moving the ball on this porous Gamecocks pass defense.

Jeremiah Hunter, CAL | $5,500 | vs. USC

Anyone who has caught a Trojans game this season knows that defense is not exactly their strength. USC comes in ranking 97th in pass defense and their 20 pass TDs allowed are tied for the 3rd most in the country. Jeremiah Hunter has had a couple of quiet games heading into this week but he hauled in a touchdown in four of the first five games of the season while catching at least five passes in each of those games. Cal will have to stay aggressive to keep up with Caleb Williams and the USC offense so keep Jeremiah Hunter in mind when mulling over your mid-range WR DFS options.

Trey Knox, SCAR | $4,000 | @ TA&M

Knox is averaging 6.5 targets/gm over the last four games while scoring two touchdowns and averaging 13.7 FPPG. The Gamecocks will be thin at receiver without WR Juice Wells (foot/out) available Saturday and they may not have WR Xavier Legette (upper body/questionable) either. Legette ranks 10th in the country in receiving yards, so his absence would be a major blow. Either way, Knox plays most snaps as the Gamecocks’ starting tight end and will see quality target volume for a guy who only costs $4,000.

Other WRs to Consider

Troy Franklin, ORE | $8,300 | @ UTAH

Jalil Farooq, OU | $6,500 | @ KU

Drake Stoops, OU | $6,200 | @ KU

Javon Baker, UCF | $5,900 | vs. WVU

Taj Davis, CAL | $4,900 | vs. USC

Jayce Brown, KSU | $3,800 | vs. UH

O’Mega Blake, SCAR | $3,800 | @ TA&M (Preferred if X. Legette is out)

Oscar Delp, UGA | $3,400 | @ UF

Running Backs to Consider

RB options at various price points.

Jonathan Brooks, UT | $7,500 | vs. BYU

Brooks continues to handle a bellcow workload and has averaged 24.1 touches/gm over the Longhorns’ last four contests. He has also been more involved as a receiver out of the backfield, catching 13-of-14 targets for 85 yards across the previous two games. The Longhorns remain -20 point favorites even without their starting QB taking the field this Saturday. Without QB Quinn Ewers, there’s a decent chance that Texas will rely even more on their workhorse tailback but even if interim QB Maalik Murphy looks sharp, Brooks is going to get his touches regardless.

RJ Harvey, UCF | $6,200 | vs. WVU

I’m not sure why DraftKings continues to keep Harvey priced in the low $6k range but here we are. He has scored at least 15.9 DKFP in 6-of-7 games this season while averaging 87.4 YPG and punching in eight total TDs. Harvey doesn’t break the bank at $6,200 and brings a strong DFS floor to the table in a solid match-up. He should find ample room to run against a West Virginia defense that is allowing 152.5 rush YPG to opposing RBs over their last four games.

Le’Veon Moss, TA&M | $5,200 | vs. SCAR

We’re picking on my Gamecocks’ defense through the air this week and we’ll also look to attack them on the ground. South Carolina is allowing 1.7 TDs/gm to RBs and they’ve given up 39.3 FPPG to RBs in road games this season. Le’Veon Moss has cemented himself as the Aggies’ RB1 while averaging 17.3 touches/gm over the last four games. Moss should be able to crack 20+ DKFP for the first time this season on Saturday and he’s a clear value target at $5,200 in what should be a strong game script for the heavily favored Aggies (-17).

Sione Vaki, UTAH | $5,000 | vs. ORE

Vaki plays as the Utes’ starting strong safety but he has displayed some impressive two-way talents at running back in Utah’s previous two games. Against Cal in week seven, Vaki took 15 carries for 158 yards and two touchdowns. He followed that performance up with another two-touchdown game against USC last week, though, this time his presence was felt more as a receiver. In that game, Vaki caught five passes for 149 yards and both of his touchdowns came through the air, but he also added 68 yards rushing on nine carries. It’ll be interesting to see how Utah continues to utilize Vaki on the offensive side, but he has certainly earned some continued involvement. This will be one of the biggest college football match-ups of the week with #13 Utah hosting #8 Oregon. The Utes are +6.5 point underdogs in this one and Vaki’s newfound big-play offensive ability should be useful in this one.

Other RBs to Consider

Jaydn Ott, CAL | $7,700 | vs. USC

Bucky Irving, ORE | $7,600 | @ UTAH

Nicholas Singleton, PSU | $6,300 | vs. IU

Treshaun Ward, KSU | $5,800 | vs. UH

Isaac Guerendo, UL | $4,800 | vs. DUKE (Only if Jawhar Jordan is out)

CJ Baxter, UT | $4,200 | vs. BYU

Justin Johnson Jr., WVU | $3,900 | @ UCF

That will do it for this week’s CFB DFS rundown! Best of luck!