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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

We hit the regular season midway point with week seven on the horizon! This will be another pivotal college football Saturday with a trio of top 25 matchups on tap (all of which are on the main slate). As usual, the focus of this newsletter will be on the DraftKings 12-game main slate, which will kick off at noon ET. FanDuel’s 14-game main slate differs slightly in structure. Still, with eight games overlapping, much of the analysis in this newsletter will apply to both sites (but be mindful of player salary discrepancies). Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 13 teams with a 25+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the other hand, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams that are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally find themselves completely outmatched versus their upcoming opponent, lack a capable offense, or their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these six teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Seven Core Targets 🎯

QB Aidan Chiles, Michigan State | $6,500 | vs. UCLA

There are some solid QBs on this slate, but not many guys feel like must plays, either due to price point or matchup concerns. So we’ll save some salary at the position with an affordable Aidan Chiles. He’s not the most gifted passer on this slate, but he is averaging a quality 12.1 yards/completion and has put up 25.5 DKFP/gm over his last four starts. Chiles has some rushing ability, averaging over 10 rush attempts/gm, and he has punched in four of MSU’s 11 rushing TDs this season. UCLA may still be riding high following their massive upset over Penn State last week, but even if the Bruins head into this game fully focused, it sets up as an appealing matchup for Chiles. UCLA hasn’t allowed huge yardage through the air (175.2 pass YPG), but they are 136th in the FBS (aka: dead last) in opponent completion% (74.5%), and they’ve allowed a 10:0 TD:INT ratio in their five games. They have also allowed 52.8 rush YPG to QBs on the season. So we can expect a quality floor out of Chiles in this game, with a decent shot at a ceiling performance. MSU is a -7.5 favorite with a respectable 31.0 implied team total (7th highest on the slate).

RB Ahmad Hardy, Missouri | $8,300 | vs. BAMA

Hardy has been an absolute beast and heads into this game as the nation’s second-leading rusher (730 yards) and is also tied for 2nd in rushing TDs (9). He only needed to handle ten carries in the week one blowout over Central Arkansas, but, in the last four games, he has averaged 23.3 rushes/gm for 157.5 YPG and 8 TDs. Hardy rarely goes down at first contact, and it often takes multiple guys to get him on the ground. The volume in this Mizzou offense has been massive, and they lead the country by a sizable margin with 85.3 offensive plays per game. The Tigers will have a huge opportunity in front of them this Saturday with Alabama in town, and Mizzou is only a three-point home underdog. It would be safe to assume that Mizzou will lean heavily on Hardy once again in order to keep the Bama offense on the sidelines. The Bama run defense also hasn’t been overly stout. They’re allowing nearly five yards per carry to RBs this season, and, in their two road games, RBs have averaged 34.4 DKFP/gm against them.

RB Kevorian Barnes, TCU | $4,500 | at KSU

Barnes missed a couple of games due to a lower leg injury that he sustained in week two, but he returned to the field last week and handled 17 touches. It wasn’t a particularly productive day against Colorado in week six, but the volume was a positive sign, and $4,500 is an attractive discounted price point for an RB1 who is a good bet to handle 15-20 touches. For reference, Barnes was $7,800 back in week one against UNC, and he racked up 134 scrimmage yards and a TD on just 14 touches. He’ll set up well versus a Kansas State defense that is 92nd in the FBS in scoring defense and has allowed a hefty 6.5 YPC to RBs over their last four games. This game could also be one of the better DFS environments on this slate as it owns a high 55.5 over/under and narrow spread (TCU: -1.5).

WR Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State | $9,000 | at IL

Nothing revolutionary here, as Jeremiah Smith is arguably the top WR in the country as a true sophomore and will probably be a top-five draft pick in the NFL draft in a couple of years. He had a quiet week one in the low-scoring 14-7 win versus Texas, but has since been tearing it up. Over the last four games, Smith has put up 7.3 receptions/gm for 105.0 YPG with seven TDs (three multi-TD games). His 32.4% Target% leads all receivers on this slate, and he’ll also draw an excellent matchup versus an Illinois defense that has allowed the second-most FPPG to WRs on the slate. This is a top 25 matchup, so while Ohio State (-14) is favored by a couple of TDs, there is reason to believe that Illinois can keep this game fairly close, which, in turn, would force the OSU offense to stay aggressive through the air. OSU QB Julian Sayin has also completed a slate-best 80.2% of his passes this season, so Smith has been seeing plenty of accurate targets.

WR Amare Thomas, Houston | $3,200 | at OKST

This is just a tough price to ignore for a guy who has commanded a solid 19.4% Target%. Amare Thomas has also been a big-play threat in this Houston offense, averaging 17.8 yards per reception. Over the last two games, Thomas has been targeted 17 times and has come away with 174 yards and a TD. The matchup is also ridiculously good as the Oklahoma State defense has been among the worst in FBS -- they’ve allowed 294.6 pass YPG (ranks 133rd) and a slate-high 50.9 FPPG to WRs.

Bonus Core Pick

WR Sam Jackson V, Oklahoma State | $3,000 | vs. UH

We’ve got an interesting situation here as Sam Jackson V, normally a depth WR, is expected to serve as Oklahoma State’s starting QB this Saturday with QB Zane Flores (shoulder) listed as doubtful and backup QB Hauss Hejny (foot) already ruled out. Jackson previously played QB as a backup at TCU and Cal before making the switch over to WR at Auburn last year and OKST this year. He’s played both positions sparingly at the collegiate level, but, as a QB, he is 64-for-114 (56.1% comp%) in his college career for 773 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INTs. Predictably, he’ll have some rushing potential given his WR skillset. No one is going to expect him to light the world on fire and he may have a short leash at QB, but, needless to say, a WR priced at the bare minimum $3,000 who will be operating as a starting QB is a can’t-miss value option.

DraftKings Week Seven CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈