By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

We are somehow already nearing the midway point of the CFB regular season with week six on the horizon! Last Saturday led to some seismic results and plenty of fallout from several marquee matchups. This week isn’t quite as loaded with premium matchups, but there are still plenty of pivotal games on tap.

As per usual, the focus for this newsletter is directed toward the 12-game DraftKings main slate, which kicks off at noon ET on Saturday. FanDuel’s 14-game main slate differs slightly in structure. Still, with nine games overlapping, much of the analysis in this newsletter will apply to both sites (but be mindful of player salary discrepancies). Let’s dig in and find the best angles for building our Week Six approach. Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 27+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the other hand, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams that are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally either find themselves completely out-matched versus their upcoming opponent, they don’t possess a capable offense, their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these six teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Six Core Targets 🎯

QB Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati | $6,800 | vs. ISU

Compared to previous slates, the quarterback isn’t overly loaded with top-flight players, but we do get a nice combination of affordability and dual-threat upside with Brendan Sorsby at $6,800. Sorsby has averaged 325 pass YPG over his last three games with a 10:0 TD:INT ratio. Sorsby also ranks 2nd among QBs on this slate in rush YPG (56.8) this season. This game features a strong 55.5 over/under as well as the narrowest spread on the slate (CINCY: -1.5).

RB Adam Randall, Clemson | $6,600 | at UNC

Barring yet another underwhelming performance from Clemson (-14 road favorites), the Tigers should be able to control this game fresh off a bye week. That should make Adam Randall a focal point on the ground. Randall has dominated the RB touches through four games; he has 57 rush attempts on the season, while no other Clemson RB has more than three carries. Randall, who is a converted wide receiver, is also a factor in the receiving game. He is third on the team with 13 receptions and saw a season-high eight targets in Clemson’s last game two weeks ago. Randall has found the endzone in each game this season and stands out as a solid floor play with plenty of upside against UNC’s middling run defense (UNC: 64th in FBS in rush YPG allowed).

RB Ismail Mahdi, Arizona | $6,100 | vs. OKST

Mahdi will be a popular target at this generous price point and terrific matchup. He’s averaging an excellent 7.0 YPC this season and could be in line for 20+ touches, similar to week three (vs. KSU), where he handled 24 touches and racked up 221 scrimmage yards. Arizona owns the second-highest team total (38.0 implied points) and is a considerable home favorite (-20.5). Oklahoma State is also one of the worst run defenses in the country. They are 128th out of 136 FBS teams in rush YPG allowed (213.0) and rank 126th in yards per carry (5.43). Running backs are averaging 6.0 YPC against them as well as a slate-high 35.5 DKFP/gm.

WR Chris Bell, Louisville | $7,100 | vs. UVA

There is ample shootout potential in this UL/UVA matchup, which owns a 60.5 over/under and a fairly close spread (UL: -6.5). The hope would be for this game to play out similarly to Louisville’s game last week versus Pitt, which the Cardinals won by a score of 34-27. QB Miller Moss attempted 51 passes in that game, and 16 of those targets went in Chris Bell’s direction, resulting in a 10-135-1 receiving line. Bell has now seen double-digit targets in both of Louisville’s competitive games this season, and Bell profiles as a great option versus a Virginia defense that has allowed 209.3 YPG and 42.7 DKFP/gm to WRs over their last four.

WR Cyrus Allen, Cincinnati | $5,700 | vs. ISU

This play will feel a bit “point chase-y” after Cyrus Allen exploded for 11 catches for 128 yards and two TDs on 14 targets last week. But, since we’re rolling Brendan Sorsby at QB, taking his top receiving weapon makes sense from a correlation standpoint. Prior to last week, Allen’s target volume wasn’t elite in any of the previous three games, but a pair of blowout wins could be to blame there. As noted in Sorsby’s spotlight, this game owns the closest spread on the slate (CINCY: -1.5), so, in a potential back-and-forth game script, Allen should flirt with double-digit target volume once again. Allen’s 23.3% Target% is easily the highest on the team, and he is clearly viewed as a top weapon in the redzone, having hauled in five TDs already this season.

DraftKings Week Six CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈