By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

A month of CFB action is in the books, and we’ll now move into week five! This Saturday features several top 25 matchups and is perhaps the most anticipated CFB Saturday of the season up to this point! Our focus, as always, will land on the 12-game DraftKings main slate, which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate will have nine games that overlap with the DK slate, so some of the info mentioned in this newsletter should be useful for FD players as well. This DK slate is setting up as a high-scoring affair -- 10-of-12 games will possess over/unders of at least 52.5 points with three games (ND/ARK, USC/ILL, TENN/MSST) owning a total north of 60 points. It’s sure to be a wild day of games, so let’s get down to it! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 17 teams with a 26.5+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally either find themselves completely out-matched versus their upcoming opponent, they don’t possess a capable offense, their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these four teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Five Core Targets 🎯

QB Haynes King, Georgia Tech | $7,900 | at WAKE

Last week’s core QB (Devon Dampier) ended up being a major letdown, but, much like last week, spreading around QB exposure is probably the wisest route to take, as there are, once again, a ton of big-time playmakers at the position on this slate.

That being said, Haynes King will step in as my core QB this week. The floor, upside, and price point all combine to make him a strong play. For comparison, King is $12,000 over on the FanDuel slate, making him the second-most expensive option at the position, whereas he is the 11th-most expensive QB on DraftKings. Haynes King is essentially an RB1 with passing upside. In Georgia Tech’s two competitive games this season (at COL, vs. CLEM), he combined for 44 rush attempts for 259 yards (5.9 YPC) and four TDs. He hasn’t been a slouch as a passer either, with a 69.7% comp% and a quality 11.2 yards per completion. But this is certainly a run-first GT offense, which ranks 12th in the country in RunPlay% (62.6%). The undefeated Yellow Jackets will step in as 14-point road favorites against Wake Forest, so we can expect a semi-competitive game, but one where GT can continue to control things on the ground with Haynes King and the GT run game. And we should still expect King to throw it around 20 times.

RB Bryson Washington, Baylor | $9,100 | at OKST

There are several injured RBs on this slate who will have “questionable” tags heading into Saturday’s action, so be sure to monitor the latest news and info leading up to some of these kickoffs.

Bryson Washington will step in as the most expensive player at the position, but he is primed for a big afternoon. The Baylor Bears have been involved in several back-and-forth shootouts already this season, which has led to QB Sawyer Robertson averaging 43.5 pass attempts/gm. Things should be a little less hectic for them this Saturday as they head in as heavy 21-point road favorites against an Oklahoma State team that could be a little distracted after longtime head coach Mike Gundy was fired abruptly this past week. In a more controlled game script, Washington will have 25+ carry upside, and he has been a fairly involved pass catcher as well, averaging 3.5 targets/gm. The Oklahoma State run defense has also been Swiss cheese. They rank 128th out of 136 FBS teams in run defense (211.0 YPG), and RBs have racked up 170.0 YPG on 5.7 YPC and 35.9 DKFP/gm against them. If things get way out of hand on the scoreboard in Baylor’s favor, Bryson Washington may not achieve a ceiling performance, but in their 42-7 blowout win over FCS Samford in week three, Washington still handled 22 touches for 146 yards and two TDs. I’d venture to say that may almost be his floor this Saturday.

RB Leshon Williams, Kansas | $3,900 | vs. CINCY

With lead RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. pinned with a “doubtful” designation, it sets up Leshon Williams to operate as the featured RB once again on Saturday. After handling just two carries in last week’s game versus West Virginia, Hishaw came out in the second half wearing street clothes. Williams stepped in to handle 20 touches for 168 yards and two TDs. No other Kansas RB handled more than six touches in that game. Williams has averaged an efficient 6.6 YPC this season, so if he is in line for 20+ touches again, he is simply too cheap for that expected workload. Cincinnati will represent a tougher challenge than WVU, but this game does feature a high 56.5 over/under, with Kansas being the 4.5-point home favorites.

WR Mario Craver, Texas A&M | $5,200 | vs. AUB

Just another egregious WR pricing error by DraftKings here. For comparison, Craver is $10,500 over on the FanDuel slate -- the second-most expensive WR behind only future top 10 NFL Draft pick Jeremiah Smith. He is the 18th-most expensive WR on DK. Through just three games, when most teams have played four, Craver is 3rd in the FBS in receiving yards (443), 1st in receiving YPG (147.7), and 4th in yards per catch (22.2 YPC, min. 10 receptions). He owns a 25.2% Target% in a TA&M offense that has scored 40+ points in all three games. The matchup sets up well versus an Auburn defense that has allowed 184.5 YPG and 40.3 DKFP/gm to WRs this season, third-most on the slate. He will be super chalky, but, unfortunately, Craver is too tough to ignore at this price point.

WR Ryan Davis, UTAH | $4,500 | at WVU

Davis was a core play last week and, despite a poor passing day for QB Devon Dampier (162 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs on 25/38 passing), Davis still salvaged a solid receiving line, catching 10-of-12 targets for 70 yards. Davis’ 29 receptions on the season are T-4th in the FBS, and he’s averaging 10.3 targets/gm over Utah’s last three games while owning a team-leading 27.3% Target%. Utah’s offense should bounce back this week, and Davis' skillset makes him a great match for DraftKings’ full PPR scoring system. Given all of those targets heading his way, I like Davis for a touchdown this Saturday as well.

DraftKings Week Five CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈