By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

We turn the page to Week Four… already! Three games on this Saturday’s main slate carry totals north of 60 points, and there’s plenty of firepower across the board to build around. Next week’s slate of games offers several marquee matchups and is sure to be a banger, but this slate also features no shortage of DFS appeal with several shootout environments in play and a few intriguing conference matchups on tap.

As always, the focus here is the 12-game DraftKings main slate, which kicks off at noon ET on Saturday. FanDuel’s main slate differs slightly in structure, but with 10 games overlapping, much of the analysis in this newsletter will apply to both sites. Let’s dig in and find the best angles for building our Week Four approach. Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 26.5+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally either find themselves completely out-matched versus their upcoming opponent, they don’t possess a capable offense, their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those three factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Four Core Targets 🎯

QB Devon Dampier, UTAH | $8,700 | vs. TTU

There are some truly elite and dynamic QBs on this slate, so I was hesitant to commit to one QB as a “core play.” But, ultimately, I settled on Devon Dampier getting the nod. The New Mexico transfer was one of the top dual-threat QBs in the country last season, when he rushed for 1,166 yards (97.2 YPG) and 19 TDs in 2024. He was also a serviceable, albeit non-polished, passer as he threw for 2,768 yards (230.7 YPG) with 12 TDs and 12 INTs on a 57.9 comp%. So far this season, Dampier has appeared to take a step forward as a passer with a 73.0% comp% and 7:0 TD:INT ratio. He has also run for at least 86 yards in two of Utah’s first three games. But, considering that Utah (3-0) has won each of its three games by an average margin of 37.3 points, Dampier hasn’t had to truly “go all out” just yet. That should change this Saturday as #16 Utah finds themselves as 3-point home underdogs to #17 Texas Tech. Dampier will be the most dangerous QB the Red Raiders have faced up to this point, and, along with the close spread, this game owns a lofty 57.5 over/under. So, on a slate with a slew of high-upside QBs, Dampier will be my go-to pick at the position (though, feel free to spread your QB ownership around).

RB Jeremiyah Love, ND | $9,000 | vs. PUR

Notre Dame came into the season as a playoff hopeful, but an 0-2 start has trimmed their postseason chances down significantly. They did face two tough opponents out of the gate, so I’d imagine they’ll attempt to put forth an emphatic winning effort this week. That should mean getting the ball into Jeremiyah Love’s hands as often as possible. Love averaged 6.9 YPC a season ago and also hauled in 28 receptions for 237 yards with 19 total TDs. He hasn’t been as efficient on the ground thus far this season (3.8 YPC), but the big gains on the ground will come given Love’s guaranteed volume in what should be the first truly positive run game script for Notre Dame (-24.5 favorites). Love has also commanded a 19.4% Target% this season, which is an elite mark for a running back. 150+ scrimmage yards and 2+ TDs are well within the range of outcomes for Love in this one.

RB Adam Randall, CLEM | $7,100 | vs. SYR

After a 1-2 start, Clemson is another team that will look to right the ship this week, and they’ll head into this Saturday’s game as 16.5-point home favorites. Adam Randall is the workhorse in this backfield -- he’s taken on 41 carries this season while no other Clemson running back has more than three carries. Outside of the game versus Troy, Clemson’s only win of the season, where he handled 25 touches, the volume hasn’t necessarily been there for Randall. But that can be blamed on poor game scripts in their other two games. But Randall has averaged a solid 5.1 YPC and has caught all six of his targets. The matchup is also among the best for an RB on this slate. Syracuse has been gashed on the ground and currently ranks 104th in the FBS in run defense. They’ve allowed a slate-worst 162.0 rush YPG (and 42.0 receiving YPG) to RBs so far this season, along with 33.1 DKFP/gm. Barring another implosion from Clemson, they should be able to control things in this game and keep Randall heavily involved for four quarters.

WR Ryan Davis, UTAH | $4,600 | vs. TTU

The previous three core plays aren’t exactly cheap, so we’ll be saving some salary on a pair of WRs. Ryan Davis is affordable and also works out as a correlating stack piece with QB Devon Dampier. Davis easily leads all Utah receivers with a 25.6% Target% and 8.0 Targets/gm. And, keep in mind, the Utes haven’t really needed to go with a pass-heavy approach, considering they have won all three of their games in blowout fashion. Davis is one of those seventh-year seniors who has been in the collegiate rankings since the 2019 season, when he played at UAB. He saw a dozen targets in last week’s game, which was Utah’s most competitive game thus far. And, with a tight back-and-forth matchup expected with Texas Tech, Davis should be in line for plenty of target volume once again.

WR Harrison Wallace III, MISS | $4,100 | vs. TUL

This is just a blatant misprice on DraftKings and, for comparison, Wallace is $9,800 and the third-most expensive WR over on the FanDuel main slate (and the two WRs ahead of him there, Jordyn Tyson and Omar Cooper Jr., play in the night games, which aren’t on the DK slate). Wallace’s 28.6% Target% and 8.7 Targets/gm are more than double that of the next-closest Rebels receiver. He has put up at least 18.7 DKFP in all three games while averaging 113.0 YPG. Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons (ankle) is seemingly doubtful to play in this game, but backup QB Trinidad Chambliss looked more than capable last week as he threw for 353 yards on a 72.4% completion% against Arkansas. Nine of Chambliss’ 29 pass attempts went in Wallace’s direction, which equated to a 31.0% Target%. Wallace is going to be mega chalk, but it’s tough to pass on this sort of salary for a clear WR1, especially in a game that owns a 61.5 over/under.

DraftKings Week Four CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈