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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Another pivotal college football Saturday is almost here as we roll into Week 13! The focus of this newsletter, as always, will be on the 12-game DraftKings main slate kicking off at noon ET. FanDuel’s main slate shares eight of these matchups, so a solid chunk of the analysis in this newsletter will carry over to FD as well -- just keep the usual salary discrepancies in mind.

With only one regular-season Saturday left after this, now’s the time to soak it in and enjoy every bit of these big slates while we still have them. This week’s board brings a fun mix of environments: multiple games with over/unders in the high-50s and low-60s, several toss-up matchups with tight spreads, and a handful of teams still jockeying for postseason position. It’s a slate with no shortage of DFS leverage spots, sneaky game environments, and potential shootouts lurking beneath the surface. Let’s dig in and break down the best plays and edges to attack on this Week 13 main slate. Best of luck this weekend!

Also, shoutout to clekid92 for covering last week’s CFB newsletter!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 15 teams with a 25+ implied point total on this slate. These teams are generally in the best spots for offensive success this Saturday, so the majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

Next up, we’ll mostly want limited-to-no exposure to teams that are likely going to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally either find themselves completely out-matched versus their upcoming opponent, they don’t possess a capable offense, their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these four teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week 13 Core Targets 🎯

QB Joe Fagnano, UCONN | $8,500 | at FAU

We’ll be rolling with a pricier core QB this week. Joe Fagnano heads into week 13 ranking 6th among all FBS QBs with 3,002 pass yards (272.3 YPG) and has an incredible 25:1 TD:INT ratio. He’s been particularly effective over the second half of the season, with 18 pass TDs over his last six games, with four games over 300 yards passing in that stretch. He’s not known for his mobility, but he can tack on a bit of yardage on the ground and has three rushing TDs on the season. This game environment is also a major draw. This game leads the slate with a huge 64.5 over/under with UCONN favored by seven points (35.8 implied team total). While the FAU defense has mostly been getting gouged by mobile QBs lately, that doesn’t negate the fact that they’ve allowed 35.1 FPPG to QBs over their last four. FAU is also the 128th-ranked scoring defense (34.6 PPG) in the FBS, so the Huskies are going to put up some points this week. In a likely shootout, 300+ yards and 3+ TDs is a very realistic, perhaps even expected, outcome for Fagnano.

QB Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech | $4,800 | vs. MIA

I don’t particularly love the RB options/matchups on this slate, so, instead of putting two RBs in the list of core plays, we’ll be going with the double-QB approach. Fair warning, this could go south pretty easily, but getting a mobile QB, like Kyron Drones, at under $5k is tempting in a vacuum. The Hokies’ future is bright, with the announcement this week that James Franklin will be the team’s next head football coach. But the story of the 2025 Hokies is not a great one. They’re 3-7 heading into this week, and the offense has looked pretty ugly at times. But the Hokies will not necessarily have to put up a ton of points for Drones to pay off this $4,800 price tag. Va Tech has combined for only 30 points across their last two games, and Drones has still posted 20.9 DKFP and 21.5 DKFP in those games. Over his last four games, despite averaging only 125.3 pass YPG, Drones has thrown 7 TDs (1.8 pass TDs/gm) and, more importantly for fantasy purposes, he has averaged 96.0 rush YPG on 17.3 att/gm with five rush TDs in that span. Miami boasts a stout defense, but the Hurricanes have also somehow played only two road games so far this season, and only one game (Week 10 at SMU) was outside the state of Florida. So, it’s only a two-game sample size, but they have allowed 24.2 FPPG to QBs on the road this season. While we can’t count on much out of him as a passer, Drones’ rushing ability does give us a floor to work with, and there is a very good chance he can clear 4x value (aka at least 19.2 DKFP) even if the Va Tech offense doesn’t exactly light it up.

RB Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami | $7,000 | at VT

There is a touch of risk added to this play, as Fletcher has missed the last two games with an undisclosed injury. But, he is off the injury report heading into this game and, if he doesn’t have any significant workload restrictions, he’s in a great spot to succeed (and this also works as a strong bring-back game stack play to pair with the aforementioned QB Kyron Drones). Prior to the injury, Fletcher was averaging 90.1 scrimmage YPG on 17.0 touches/gm, and he punched in nine TDs across eight games. Three of his games played this season were of the multi-touchdown variety, so the ceiling is strong if he flirts with around 20 touches this week. The Va Tech run defense has also been getting bulldozed. Over their last four games, the Hokies are giving up 164.3 rush YPG on 6.0 YPC to RBs, along with 1.8 TDs/gm and 33.3 FPPG allowed to the position. Miami is a sizable 18.5-point road favorite here, suggesting a positive run game script should develop quickly. The Hurricanes are currently 13th in the latest CFP rankings, and while they have an inside pathway to an at-large bid, as the ACC’s highest-ranked team, they could still do themselves a favor by putting up a convincing win this Saturday. That could include heavily featuring a now-healthy Mark Fletcher Jr. quite a bit.

WR Skyler Bell, UCONN | $7,400 | at FAU

Skyler Bell will be a popular target at WR on this slate, as he leads all players (not just WRs) in both LineStar (29.05) and consensus (28.92) projections. But the fact that we’ve got Joe Fagnano as a core play also makes Skyler Bell a core play essentially by default. Bell leads all FBS receivers with 93 receptions -- 10 more than the next-closest player -- and he’s second in the country in receiving yards (1,153), only a couple of yards behind San Jose State’s stud WR Danny Scudero. Before last week, when Bell “only” caught eight passes (on eight targets) for 70 yards, he had either commanded 12+ targets OR hauled in multiple touchdowns in every game this season. Bell’s floor and ceiling are simply unmatched on this slate, so he’s an easy name to click on this week.

WR Kendrick Law, Kentucky | $4,600 | at VANDY

Outside of Kyron Drones, the core plays have been pretty pricey up to this point, so we’ll save some salary with our second core WR. Kendrick Law has emerged as a much-needed playmaker in this Kentucky offense lately. Over the last four games, he’s averaging 6.3 receptions/gm for 80.0 YPG with two TDs. Last week, he caught 11-of-11 targets on a day where Kentucky only passed the ball 27 times -- quick math, that’s a 40.7% Target%. Of course, that was a matchup against a much more inferior Tennessee Tech team, but the point still stands. Law is also getting one or two carries out of the backfield in recent games. While that isn’t going to add much value to his overall numbers, it does tell us that Kentucky really wants to get the ball into Law’s hands by any means necessary. The Wildcats are 8.5-point underdogs to Vandy this week, suggesting a pass-heavy game script is likely. And the Vandy pass defense has been nothing special, especially lately. Over their last four games, the Commodores are allowing 222.5 YPG and 51.0 FPPG to WRs, which are the second-highest marks on the slate.

DraftKings Week 13 CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈