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Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Another pivotal college football Saturday is almost here in Week 11! The DraftKings main slate features 12 games kicking off at noon ET, and that’s where this newsletter will keep its focus, as usual. FanDuel’s main slate includes nine of the same matchups, so many of the insights here will translate across both platforms — just keep salary gaps in mind as DraftKings tends to be a bit softer on CFB pricing. This slate will feature a trio of top 25 matchups and nine games with single-digit spreads, so it’s sure to be a thrilling CFB Saturday! Let’s dig in and find the best plays and angles to attack this weekend’s slate. Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 15 teams with a 25+ implied point total on this slate. These teams are generally in the best spot for offensive success this Saturday, so the majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

Next up, we’ll mostly want limited-to-no exposure to teams that are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. These teams generally either find themselves completely out-matched versus their upcoming opponent, they don’t possess a capable offense, their matchup is expected to be a slow and low-scoring affair, or it’s some combination of those factors. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-matchup-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week 11 Core Targets 🎯

QB Scotty Fox Jr., WVU | $6,200 | vs. COL

There are plenty of great QBs to consider on this slate, so I wouldn’t be against spreading ownership around and correlating with different team stacks. But we’ve also got an intriguing value QB in Scotty Fox Jr. (great name). The 3-6 Mountaineers have had a revolving door at quarterback this season, with four different QBs seeing the field at some point. However, after a couple of strong showings over the last two weeks, true freshman Scotty Fox Jr. appears to be the permanent option moving forward. Fox kept WVU in the game against a superior TCU team in week nine, passing for 301 yards and a pair of TDs. Against a top-25 Houston team last week, Fox led WVU to a 45-35 upset win while showing some dual-threat ability, completing 13/22 passes for 157 yards and a TD and tacking on 65 rush yards and two additional scores. He has averaged a rock-solid 12.0 yards per pass attempt and has shown a willingness to step in as a runner. The matchup looks great as Colorado owns the 107th-ranked scoring defense (30.1 PPG) and has allowed 34.1 FPPG to QBs when playing on the road. Gotta love his potential to pay off this $6,200 price tag.

RB DeJuan Williams, UMD | $5,000 | at RU

Maryland has not been much of a run-heavy team this season, and, in fact, they’ve posted the 5th-lowest RushPlay% (37.8%) in the FBS. The good news for DeJuan Williams is that he has emerged as a go-to receiver out of the backfield. He is still a good bet to handle 10-15 carries in this game, as he has done in all but one of Maryland’s eight games this season. But, over the last three games, Williams has also seen 21 targets, resulting in 16 receptions for 199 receiving yards (66.3 YPG) and a TD. Assuming he keeps this sort of target volume going, that will play well, given DraftKings’ full PPR scoring system. Rutgers is also allowing over 200 scrimmage YPG, 1.3 TDs/gm, and 40.4 FPPG to RBs over their last four games, and this game is tied for the second-highest total on the slate (57.5 O/U) with a close 2.5-point spread.

RB Diore Hubbard, WVU | $4,800 | vs. COL

I don’t typically look to spotlight a QB and an RB on the same team as my core plays, but WVU offers value at both of these positions this week. WVU also has a quality 29.3 implied team total, so potentially getting exposure to all of their offensive touchdowns against a poor Colorado defense also has some appeal. The Mountaineers’ backfield has been ravaged by injuries, and they’ve been without their top two RBs, Jahiem White and Tye Edwards, since early in the season. That has left Diore Hubbard to handle most of the backfield work over the last month-plus. WVU has mostly been in trailing game scripts (which is, of course, bad for RBs) since Hubbard became the featured back. That is, until last week, when WVU held a lead for much of the game against Houston. A positive game script, for a change, led to Hubbard handling 31 total touches, which he churned into 113 yards and a TD. The efficiency may not have been outstanding, but volume supersedes all other things in DFS. And the Mountaineers find themselves as six-point home favorites in their matchup this Saturday, so, as long as WVU doesn’t fall behind significantly on the scoreboard, Hubbard should be in line for 20+ touches. Colorado is giving up nearly 170 YPG on the ground to RBs over their last four games, as well as 1.5 TDs/gm. So, 100+ yards and a TD feels like a fairly attainable outcome for Hubbard in this game and, for what it’s worth, his rushing prop is currently set at 93.5 yards.

WR Skyler Bell, UCONN | $6,900 | vs. DUKE

This UCONN/DUKE matchup owns a massive 63.5 over/under, which is a touchdown higher than any other game on the slate. So, suffice to say, we’ll definitely want some exposure to this game. I’m fairly certain this is the first time UCONN has been on a main slate this season, and, though his ownership will be insanely high, it’s just too difficult to pass up on Skyler Bell as a core play. Bell is the current FBS leader in both receptions (74) and receiving TDs (11). His target volume is simply off the charts, and he has seen at least 12 targets in seven of nine games this season. In the two games Bell didn’t see at least a dozen targets, he ended up catching two touchdowns in both games. The Huskies are 8.5-point home underdogs this week, and they’re going to need to lean pass-heavy to keep up with Duke’s high-powered offense. It’s a perfect storm for another monster Skyler Bell performance, as Duke owns the 123rd-ranked pass defense in the FBS, and they’ve allowed +30% more FPPG to WRs when playing on the road.

WR Omarion Miller, COL | $4,800 | at WVU

We’re pretty invested in the WVU offense this week, which, I’ll admit, is a bit of a scary thought. But, if it pays off, there’s a good chance that some players on the Colorado side will pop off on the other side as well. As bad as the Colorado defense has been, this West Virginia defense certainly isn’t any good either, and they’ve checked in at 108th in total defense (406.4 YPG) and 109th in scoring defense (30.4 PPG). Omarion Miller has recently emerged as the Buffaloes' top receiver. Over the last four games, he has averaged over 80 YPG and has combined to score five TDs in that stretch. West Virginia has also allowed a slate-high 245.5 YPG and 54.9 FPPG to WRs over their last four. The QB situation is in flux for Colorado, as they prepare to turn the reins over to true freshman Julian Lewis. But Lewis was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school in the latest recruiting cycle, drawing comparisons to Bryce Young. Omarion Miller was also on the receiving end of a 59-yard TD pass from Lewis when the freshman QB came in to replace former starter Kaidon Salter in the second half of last week’s game versus Arizona.

DraftKings Week 11 CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

🏈 Best of luck this Saturday! 🏈