By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Another tantalizing college football Saturday is around the corner as week seven hits the board! As usual, we’ll be placing our focus on the 12-game DraftKings Saturday main slate which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate, which always includes a few games in the 7 o’clock ET window, will feature eight mutually shared games with the DK slate. So feel free to keep some of the recommended plays and insights from this newsletter in mind if FanDuel is your CFB DFS site of choice! The premiere match-up of the day, Ohio State at Oregon, will not be on this DK main slate, but we do have other intriguing in-conference match-ups, including the Red River Rivalry and No. 4 Penn State as narrow 3.5-point favorites on the road against unranked USC. One thing I’m not looking forward to is Alabama taking their frustrations out on my poor Gamecocks following their stunning upset loss to Vandy last week. But who knows, maybe the Cocks can put up a fight! This should be another electric CFB Saturday so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 13 teams with a 25.8+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-match-up-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Seven Core Targets 🎯

QB Haynes King, GT | $8,100 | at UNC

We have some great high-end QB options on this slate, and you can’t really go wrong with any of the pricier guys I have listed on the cheat sheet below, but Haynes King hits on every aspect of a CFB DFS QB that I look for -- elite match-up in a potential shootout (60 O/U, GT -3.5), dual-threat upside, passing efficiency, high floor/ceiling, and easily identifiable stack pieces. King’s $8,100 DK salary also isn’t too stringent when compared to other top-end QBs on this slate. Opposing QBs are averaging 29.5 DKFP/gm L4Games against UNC -- a team that ranks 93rd in the FBS in total defense. King has completed 74.0% of his passes with an 8:1 TD:INT ratio and is also averaging a hair under 40 YPG on the ground to go along with four rushing TDs. I don’t believe we’ve seen King’s true ceiling yet this season and, when these two teams met last year (when UNC had a better overall defense), these two teams combined for 88 points while King completed 76.7% of his passes for 287 yards and 4 TDs while also tacking on 90 yards rushing. I will have exposure to several of these high-end QBs but, with all factors considered, King sets up as my favorite of the bunch.

RB RJ Harvey, UCF | $9,200 | vs. CINCY

We’re not messing around with the core RB selections this week as both are going to cost a pretty penny. Harvey is coming off of a couple of “down games” in back-to-back UCF losses to Colorado and Florida. But those down games still equated to 169 total yards, a TD, and 25.9 DKFP (vs. COL) and 110 total yards, a TD, and 18.0 DKFP (@ UF). Performances like that are essentially his floor, and we know his ceiling is in the slate-breaking 40+ DKFP level. This Cincy/UCF game has plenty of back-and-forth, high-scoring potential (58.5 O/U, UCF -3), and the Bearcats have allowed a 5.7 YPC average to RBs this season, along with a fair amount of receiving production. Harvey should get back over 100 yards rushing in this one and is about as strong of a bet to score multiple TDs as any player on this slate.

RB Kaleb Johnson, IOWA | $8,300 | vs. UW

Next up is Iowa bellcow Kaleb Johnson. Johnson’s 771 rushing yards (154.2 YPG) rank second in the country, trailing only Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, who is simply putting up astronomical stats this season. Even a tough match-up against Ohio State didn’t stop Johnson from putting up a solid game -- 15 rushes, 86 yards, and a TD (Iowa’s only TD of the game). Johnson doesn’t provide much as a receiver, but he racked up at least 119 rush yards and 2+ TDs in each of the Hawkeyes' first four games. Washington has been fairly decent against the run, but they’ve been much tougher versus the pass thanks to elite talent in the secondary -- so the best way to beat them is on the ground… which is Iowa’s specialty after all. This game owns a low 42.0 O/U, but Iowa steps in as slight -2.5 home favorites, and they should be prepared to give Johnson 25+ touches in this game.

WR Malik Rutherford, GT | $5,300 | at UNC

Up to this point, the core includes a fairly expensive QB and two ultra pricey RBs so, as you’d imagine, we’ll be looking to save some salary at the WR/TE position. Malik Rutherford is simply underpriced at $5,300 and also works as a reliable stack piece to core QB Haynes King. Rutherford accounts for a strong 24.8% Target% in this Yellow Jackets’ offense and he has hauled in 82.2% of his looks while averaging 6.2 receptions/gm and 79.0 YPG. Only two TDs through six games thus far, but I believe he will find the endzone this week versus a poor UNC defense. His fellow Georgia Tech WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,500) is also another viable stack piece (or standalone play) with Haynes King -- outside of Rutherford and Singleton (21.5% Target%), no other GT receiver has higher than an 8.8% Target%.

TE Joe Royer, CINCY | $3,400 | at UCF

To really free up some salary even further, we’ll venture near the bottom of WR/TE pricing to find Cincy TE Joe Royer at only $3,400. WR Xzavier Henderson ($7,100) is the unquestionable alpha receiver in this Bearcats offense (and he’s probably my favorite spend-up WR on this slate), but Royer owns a respectable 18.6% Target% of his own, which ranks 2nd on the team, and he has averaged four receptions/gm for 52.4 YPG to go along with two TDs on the season. UCF is 103rd in the FBS in pass defense (247.0 YPG) and they have allowed a 69.6% completion%, which ranks even worse at 125th out of 134 FBS teams. At $400 above the stone minimum DK salary, we don’t need much out of Royer to be satisfied and he also works as a cheap game stack bring-back piece to the aforementioned RJ Harvey.

DraftKings Week Seven CFB Cheat Sheet 📝 

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Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code

Best of luck on Saturday!