By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

We fly into week six as we near the halfway point of the CFB regular season! As usual, we’ll be placing our focus on the 14-game DraftKings Saturday main slate which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate, which always includes a few games in the 7 o’clock ET window, will feature nine mutually shared games with the DK slate. So feel free to keep some of the recommended plays and insights from this newsletter in mind if FanDuel is your CFB DFS site of choice! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 27.0+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-match-up-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Six Core Targets 🎯

QB CJ Bailey, NCST | $5,100 | vs. WAKE

This feels like a great week to jam two QBs into lineups, via the “SuperFlex” position. My three favorite spend-ups at QB are Jalen Milroe ($10,400), Eli Holstein ($9,000), and Garrett Greene ($8,000). Regardless of whether that will be your approach or not, a ton of roster flexibility opens up by placing CJ Bailey into your lineup(s) as a “QB2” at his modest $5,100 price tag. QB Grayson McCall remains doubtful with an undisclosed injury so Bailey, who entered this season as the Wolfpacks’ presumed QB of the future, will receive another start. This easily sets up as the most favorable match-up for Bailey to date. He’ll be at home against a Wake Forest team that ranks 123rd out of 134 FBS teams in pass defense (285.8 pass YPG) and 128th in total defense (470.5 total YPG). Bailey also brings some rushing upside to the table and has scored a TD on the ground in two of the three games where he has seen extensive action. NC State is a four-point home favorite with a solid 28.3 implied team total. Barring injury, I just don’t see many ways in which Bailey fails to return value on this rock-bottom salary.

RB Omarion Hampton, UNC | $8,700 | vs. PITT

We can apply some of the savings that we’ll get by rostering CJ Bailey by spending up on a stud RB in Omarion Hampton. Through five games, Hampton is averaging 25.4 touches/gm and 153 total YPG with a pair of three-touchdown single-game performances. This game should be an excellent DFS environment given its huge 63.5 over/under combined with a close spread (UNC: +2.5). On top of workhorse rushing volume, Hampton is involved as a pass catcher so he should receive work regardless of whether the Tarheels are playing from ahead or behind in this expected back-and-forth shootout.

RB Tawee Walker, WISC | $5,100 | vs. PUR

With Chez Mellusi (out) stepping away from football to focus on his personal health, Tawee Walker will have a chance to take the reigns in the Wisconsin backfield. Other Badger RBs will certainly continue to mix in, specifically Cade Yacamelli ($4,300), but Walker is the best bet to sniff 20+ touches. It’s a perfect match-up for Walker to take advantage of as Purdue has been gouged on the ground, ranking 131st in the FBS in run defense (242.0 rush YPG) and allowing 30.0 FPPG to RBs (46.1 FPPG to RBs on the road).

WR Ryan Williams, BAMA | $7,300 | at VANDY

With Alabama QB Jalen Milroe jumping ahead as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner following a monster primetime performance against UGA last week, we may see him let loose and pad the stats in games that the Tide should win easily. Vandy has been scrappy this season but they are no real match against Alabama as 22.5-point home underdogs. The 17-year-old phenom, Ryan Williams, had himself a breakout performance last week, hauling in six receptions for 177 yards and a touchdown. His 75-yard touchdown catch-and-run (ICYMI: see tweet below) was a thing of beauty and one of the more athletic college football plays we’ve seen in recent years. Williams’ DFS salaries have quickly caught up to his talent, so he will need another big game to pay off here, but the star true freshman has found the endzone at least once in all four games and his 462 receiving yards are 312 more than the next closest Bama receiver (Germie Bernard, 150 yards).

WR Caullin Lacy, UL | $3,400 | vs. SMU

Here’s a gentle reminder that paying attention to the LineStar CFB chat on Saturday mornings can be crucial! News was shared in the chat that Caullin Lacy was going to be active for the first time this season in week five. While he didn’t put up a monster game, Lacy caught 5-of-9 targets for 71 yards and easily paid off his stone minimum $3,000 DK price tag. Lacy only saw a $400 price bump this week and is simply far too cheap now that he is healthy and operating as a top pass catcher in a capable Louisville offense. Lacy transferred to Louisville this past offseason from South Alabama where he had a dominant 91-catch, 1,300+ yard season in 2023, despite missing the final two games. So he is certainly familiar with putting up big numbers and, though he may very well be the highest-owned player on this slate, aside from an injury, I see no way for Lacy to disappoint at this price point.

DraftKings Week Six CFB Cheat Sheet 📝 

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Best of luck on Saturday!