By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Week four of the college football season arrives and, with it, another loaded Saturday of games. Conference play is beginning to ramp up and, as a result, we’ll start to see more and more evenly matched opponents facing off.

As usual, our focus in this newsletter is going to be on the 13-game DraftKings main slate which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate, which always bleeds into the evening window, will feature eight mutually shared games with the DK slate. So feel free to keep some recommended plays and insights from this newsletter in mind if FanDuel is your CFB DFS site of choice! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 26.5+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-match-up-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Four Core Targets 🎯

QB Tyler Shough, UL | $7,200 | vs. GT

The Louisville Cardinals have only played two games, and they’ve both been blowout wins over lesser opponents, Austin Peay and Jax State. Regardless, Shough has looked impressive as a passer, completing 68.4% of his attempts for 581 yards and six TDs against zero interceptions. We haven’t seen much in the way of rushing production out of Shough in those two games but that could very well have been by design considering how comfortable both wins have been. Shough has also dealt with some serious injuries that have caused him to miss significant time during his collegiate career. However, Shough has posted multiple 100+ yard single-game rushing performances in previous seasons so perhaps, in a more competitive atmosphere, we’ll see him mix in some gains with his legs. He’s also at a cheap enough price point to where he doesn’t necessarily need to add value running the ball to turn in a strong DFS score. Shough is one of those “seventh-year seniors” so it’s safe to say he has enough experience under his belt to succeed against a more equal opponent in Georgia Tech this Saturday, and Louisville steps in as 10-point home favorites with a strong 33.3 implied team total.

RB Phil Mafah, CLEM | $6,000 | vs. NCST

It’s another week where there are a ton of high-quality RBs, especially in the $7k range, and there are plenty of names I’m on board with (see cheat sheet below). However, Mafah at a modest $6,000 price tag sticks out as he can post a comparable stat line as those guys priced well above him. Clemson was stomped in the opener against Georgia but they easily handled App State prior to last week’s bye. Mafah only needed to handle 10 carries in the easy win, but he made the most of those by rumbling for 110 yards and a TD. In more competitive games, as this one should be (CLEM -19), Mafah has plenty of 20+ touch potential. In last season’s game against NC State, Mafah handled 19 total touches for 92 scrimmage yards and two TDs, and that was while losing touches to former Clemson RB Will Shipley. Mafah is easily the best RB in this backfield so there is no significant competition for touches unless this game turns into a blowout very early in the game.

RB Jeremiyah Love, ND | $5,500 | vs. MIAOH

Following the embarrassing week two home loss to NIU, the Fighting Irish seemed committed to making a statement last week, pulverizing Purdue by a score of 66-7. I expect they’ll want to do the same versus another inferior opponent in Miami (OH), so that should mean plenty of runs for their stable of RBs. Jeremiyah Love is the most dynamic player in the Notre Dame backfield and he has shown that by averaging a stout 8.0 YPC. Love has found the endzone in every game this season and he’s seen some usage as a pass catcher as well with five receptions on seven targets for 31 yards. QB Riley Leonard reignited his rushing prowess last week, running for 100 yards and three rushing TDs, so there is a chance that some of Love’s TD potential will be taken away if Leonard runs wild again. At $5,500, he remains a great potential bargain even if Leonard makes another sizable impact on the ground.

WR Andrew Armstrong, ARK | $6,900 | at AUB

A hamstring injury kept Andrew Armstrong out of the season opener but, considering it was a game against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, which the Razorbacks won 70-0, it may have been more precautionary than anything. Armstrong was expected to be the Hogs’ top WR this season, and that has looked to be the correct presumption over the last two weeks. In these last two games that Armstrong has suited up in, he has commanded a whopping 26 targets, catching 18 passes for 301 yards. No TDs just yet, but with that sort of target volume, the touchdowns will come eventually. Auburn’s pass defense has ranked 100th out of 134 FBS teams this season and they’ve allowed 200 YPG to opposing WRs thus far. If Armstrong is going to continue to see 12+ targets/gm, he’s destined to break some slates… perhaps starting this Saturday.

WR Ja'Corey Brooks, UL | $4,800 | vs. GT

Brooks is one of the more underpriced players on this slate. He is the clear WR1 for Louisville and has caught 13 of his team-leading 15 targets for 172 yards and a TD across the Cardinals’ two games. Brooks spent his first three seasons at Alabama, where he never really emerged as a go-to weapon in an always-stacked Crimson Tide wide receiver room, but he’s easily the most talented receiver on his new team. He’s a must-stack piece if you’re rostering the aforementioned Tyler Shough but Brooks is a go-to value option regardless of which QB(s) you decide to roll with.

DraftKings Week Four CFB Cheat Sheet 📝 

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code

Best of luck on Saturday!