By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Keep an eye out for Shannon’s week two CFB props show on the LineStar YouTube page! The CFB video will typically post shortly after this newsletter is released!

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

Week three has snuck up on us in a hurry! There may not be as many marquee match-ups on the board as we’d like to see but those big games are just around the corner. And we certainly won’t turn our nose up at this Saturday’s games as there are sure to be some thrillers!

As usual, our focus in this newsletter is going to be on the 12-game DraftKings main slate which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate, which always bleeds into the evening window, will feature ten mutually shared games with the DK slate. That’s a couple more mutually shared games than we’re used to seeing so feel free to keep some recommended plays and insights from this newsletter in mind if FanDuel is your CFB DFS site of choice! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 25+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-match-up-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these six teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week Three Core Targets 🎯

QB Garrett Greene, WVU | $7,800 | at PITT

It’s safe to say we’ll want some exposure to this WVU at PITT match-up which features a slate-high 63.5 O/U and it’s essentially a pick ‘em with the Mountaineers stepping in as one-point road favorites. Garrett Greene, and this WVU offense as a whole, had a day to forget to open the season against a tough Penn State defense as they mustered just 12 points. However, it was business as usual for the dual-threat QB in week two where he completed 73.9% of his passes for 236 yards and three touchdowns while tacking on 68 yards on seven carries (9.7 YPC) and an additional score against the out-matched Albany. Greene has 100+ yard rushing upside, as we saw on multiple occasions last season, and he’s a solid, albeit unspectacular, passer. West Virginia should have plenty of success moving the ball against a PITT defense that ranks 79th in total defense over the first two weeks of the season despite not facing top-level competition (Kent State and Cincinnati).

RB Desmond Reid, PITT | $6,400 | vs. WVU

We’ll run the Garrett Greene core play back with Pittsburgh RB Desmond Reid on the other side. He’s been an absolute stud to begin the year and should realistically be priced well into the $8k range and beyond, but DraftKings is taking their time adjusting his salary. Reid has averaged 21.0 touches/gm and 205 scrimmage YPG across the first two weeks and his 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 117 receiving yards lead all RBs on this slate. Reid will be massive chalk on this slate but sometimes you just have to take the obvious play and look to find leverage elsewhere.

RB Raheim Sanders, SCAR | $4,900 | vs. LSU

I may not be able to beat the homer allegations with this core play but Sanders, at $4,900, is simply too cheap for a guy that qualifies as a bellcow back. Sanders hasn’t broken loose for many big gains just yet, with a season-long of only 21 yards, and he is averaging a fairly lackluster 3.8 YPC behind a young Gamecocks O-Line, but he is garnering 19.0 touches/gm while no other Gamecock RB is averaging more than 2.50 touches/gm. Sanders was never really healthy last year in his junior season at Arkansas, and the results in his limited action reflect that, but he rightfully earned the nickname “Rocket” following a stellar sophomore campaign where he ran for 1,443 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.5 YPC and tacking on 271 yards on 28 receptions. We’re expecting a fairly competitive game here with South Carolina being 6.5-point home underdogs and LSU has allowed 4.6 YPC to opposing RBs thus far this season. The LSU D-Line is also dealing with some injuries so, all-in-all, I like Sanders’ chances of compiling 100+ total yards with a good chance at a TD or two. We’ll take that for a $4,900 RB. I also don’t believe he’ll be extremely chalky. My guess would be for Mizzou RB Nate Noel ($5,600) to be the more popular value RB. Many will also gravitate toward the aforementioned Desmond Reid and the other excellent options in the $6k range (see cheat sheet below). And, as usual, Oklahoma State star RB Ollie Gordon II ($10,000) will command his usual 40+% ownership even after a disappointing (by his standards) week two.

WR Mario Williams, TUL | $6,000 | at OU

Wide receiver is always where you can get the most creative with your DFS player pool and we’ll be targeting Mario Williams as a core play in week three. At $6,000, Williams is also a potential pivot off of the similarly-priced PITT WR Konata Mumpfield ($6,000), who will be popular this week in that likely shootout with West Virginia. Unlike Mumpfield (3 TDs), Mario Williams has yet to find the endzone this season but he has the same amount of receptions (10) on a better target% (26.1% vs. 19.3%), and has averaged an outstanding 25.2 YPC/126.0 YPG to Mumpfield’s 17.9 YPC/89.5 YPG. Now, this isn’t a slight against Mumpfield, I’m just comparing these two $6k receivers who have vastly different ownership projections but similar upside. The catch here is that the Tulane Green Wave has just a 16.5 implied point total. However, with Tulane being 13-point underdogs, the game script would seem to favor a pass-heavy approach without leading to a total blowout, and Williams is quite easily the #1 target on this offense, especially while Bama sophomore transfer WR Shazz Preston (undisclosed) remains doubtful to make his season debut. Some may recall that Mario Williams began his collegiate career at Oklahoma before transferring to USC for his sophomore and junior seasons. So, the first point here is that perhaps he’ll have a little extra motivation playing against his former school. The second point is that he is used to playing against quality opponents during his time in the Big 12 and PAC-12. Tulane QB Darian Mensah ($6,100) has also looked sharp, completing 70.7% of his passes this season and, from a contrarian angle, I don’t mind using Mensah and Williams as a cheap, low-owned QB/WR stack.

WR Ryan Williams, BAMA | $5,600 | at WISC

Williams is another WR that I suspect won’t be overly popular, although he is earning some love from LineStar users ahead of this slate. He wouldn’t profile as a “safe” play but perhaps we can strike gold with the stud true freshman, who is still just 17-years-old (!), entered in from the 2024 recruiting cycle as the #3 WR and #8 overall prospect in the country. Despite a slow first-half start against USF last week, Alabama has ultimately cruised to two blowout victories to begin the season. Partially, as a result, Williams has only seen eight targets from Heisman hopeful QB Jalen Milroe ($10,000). Williams has made the most of those opportunities, however, catching six balls for 207 yards (34.5 YPC!) and three TDs. The Crimson Tide are still heavy 16-point favorites on the road against Wisconsin this Saturday, but the Badgers should put up enough of a fight to keep Alabama aggressive through the air. If Williams ends up seeing stronger target volume, combined with his big play ability, he could be a true slate-breaker.

DraftKings Week Three CFB Cheat Sheet 📝 

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code

Best of luck on Saturday!