By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/LineStar Chat.

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CFB Props Show w/ Shannon Sommerville

Main Slate Rundown 🏈

The race for the College Football Playoffs has essentially kicked into overdrive as we enter week 12 of the regular season! This week may not feature a slew of must-see match-ups, but you just can’t beat a college football Saturday in the fall and we don’t have too many of ‘em left this year! As usual, we’ll be placing our focus on the 12-game DraftKings main slate which will kick off at noon ET. The 14-game FanDuel main slate, which always includes a few games in the 7 o’clock ET window, will feature eight mutually shared games with the DK slate. Feel free to keep some of the recommended plays from this newsletter in mind if FanDuel is your CFB DFS site of choice (and the pricing makes sense)! Best of luck!

To begin, let’s get a look at the 14 teams with a 25.8+ implied point total on this slate. The majority of our preferred DFS plays will be found on these rosters:

On the flip side, we’ll want limited-to-no exposure to teams who are expected to struggle to score 20+ points. Unless a specific player is priced down, has near-match-up-proof talent, and is guaranteed high volume, we should lean toward avoiding these five teams on the slate:

Obligatory: Vegas spreads and totals aren’t the be-all, end-all but they do give us a solid amount of information to use as our research ‘jump-off point’ on any given slate.

Main Slate Match-Ups

Week 12 Core Plays 🎯

QB Garrett Greene, WVU | $7,400 | vs. BAY

I’ve been a little stumped on which QB to place the “core” designation on this week as there are several great options (see; “high” and “mid” tier QBs on cheat sheet below) and there isn’t much separating them in terms of fantasy upside. Ultimately, I’m landing on Garrett Greene who makes his return after missing the last couple of games with an upper-body injury. Much of Greene’s value comes from what he can do as a runner, and the fact that it has been an upper-body injury that has held him out gives me confidence that he’ll still be active with his legs this Saturday. WVU drew a couple of tough match-ups in Greene’s previous two starts (KSU & ISU) but he had still run for at least 86 yards in four consecutive games prior to the injury. Baylor has been a middling run defense, ranking 62nd in the FBS allowing over 140 rush YPG. We can also have fairly high hopes for Greene as a passer -- he hasn’t shined in that department this season but he’ll get to face a Baylor defense that has allowed 313.8 pass YPG and 2.0 pass TDs/gm over their last four games. Greene went nuclear against Baylor the last time he faced them in week 13 of last season, passing for 269 yards and 2 TDs while adding 103 yards and 2 RuTDs and finishing with nearly 45 DKFP. This match-up also carries the highest total (59.5 O/U) and closest spread (WVU +1) on the slate, so plenty of shootout potential resides in this game. The only issue with Greene, aside from concerns over him returning from an injury absence, is the fact that most of his receivers are wild cards as stack pieces… so I don’t hate the idea of simply running with “naked” Garrett Greene this week.

RB Makhi Hughes, TUL | $7,600 | at NAVY

Hughes could very likely be the highest-owned player on this slate but $7,600 is simply a mis-price for a guy who has put up at least 29.4 DKFP in five consecutive games. Barring injury, Hughes is a virtual lock for 100+ yards and a TD, and he should do much more than that versus a beatable Navy run defense. Hughes could have realistically been the most expensive RB on the slate and he’d still profile as a great play. Chalk smashes all the time in CFB and we can expect that to come to fruition with Hughes.

RB Kaytron Allen, PSU | $4,900 | at PUR

Whether or not Nic Singleton (undisclosed/questionable) suits up, I believe we have to jump on this sub-$5k price tag on Kaytron Allen, who has been consistently receiving the most work out of the PSU backfield even while Singleton has been healthy and active. Realistically, both guys can post up a quality stat line in this game against Purdue -- the 119th-ranked run defense in the FBS (199.9 rush YPG allowed). Purdue is giving up 42.0 FPPG to RBs L4Games and the Nittany Lions are massive -28.5 point favorites with a slate-leading 40.5 implied team total. I’ll be looking for a similar, if not better, result out of Kaytron Allen as he provided last week when he took 20 carries for 98 yards and a TD in an easy 35-6 victory over Washington.

WR Ja'Corey Brooks, UL | $7,700 | at STAN

Finding value is once again no trouble on this slate so we can certainly afford to spend up on top-level players in outstanding match-ups. Ja’Corey Brooks fits the bill this week after averaging 93.4 YPG with 8 total TDs on the season. Stanford’s secondary has been annihilated by opposing WRs this season, allowing 216.4 YPG, 1.9 TDs/gm, and 51.6 FPPG to the position. The Louisville Cardinals are fresh off of a bye week following their big road victory over Clemson in week 10, and I’d expect them to go all out offensively this Saturday. Their 39.3 implied team total ranks second on the slate behind the aforementioned Nittany Lions.

WR Elic Ayomanor, STAN | $5,200 | vs. UL

Ayomanor is likely going to be one of the top 10 WRs off the board in next year’s NFL Draft and he has overcome some pretty rough QB play to put up some quality numbers this season -- 65.8 YPG with 5 TDs on the year and 15.7 FPPG. Ayomanor has commanded an elite 31.1% Target% and, as 20.5-point underdogs, Stanford should be leaning pass-heavy early and often in this game. The monster games haven’t been routine for Ayomanor this season but we’re getting a guy with a massive ceiling at only $5,200.

DraftKings Week 12 CFB Cheat Sheet 📝

Click the cheat sheet above to view a higher quality direct image.

Alternative Cheat Sheet Direct Image Link

Cheat Sheet QR Code

Best of luck on Saturday!